The New York Times has an article on wind energy, especially Sweden's efforts to generate 10% of their electricity from wind. The article is drenched in skeptical phrases: promising power source, with flaws, use of wind power in many European countries has stagnated, no longer a quirky alternative favored by environmentalists in Denmark and Germany, wind energy is coming under sharper scrutiny, makes wind a shaky replacement for more dependable, if polluting, energy sources, areas most suited for wind turbines [are] far from the coastal population centers that need the most electricity, unpredictable surges, people tend to get hyped up about it, very emotional, ...
The facts are presented pretty fairly, though. Hand wringing about the intermittency is resolved at the end of the article by pointing out the use of hydro-electric energy storage.
Friday, November 23, 2007
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Energy Policy and its Rewards
Germany embarked on an ambitious project to invest in all kinds of renewable energy. Next to direct subsidies of research, guaranteed prices for electricity from wind energy and solar energy were established. The guaranteed prices were set to decrease every year to first make renewable energy competitive, but also to create pressure to improve their efficiency. This worked incredibly well.
One payoff of such foresight? Export earnings. According to the Financial Times Deutschland, Germany companies is selling renewable energy technology worth €8 billion this year, an amount that is expected to double within three years. "Twenty years ahead of other countries", is the headline of the article. 74% of sales in the wind energy industry is for export, up from 58% in 2003.
One payoff of such foresight? Export earnings. According to the Financial Times Deutschland, Germany companies is selling renewable energy technology worth €8 billion this year, an amount that is expected to double within three years. "Twenty years ahead of other countries", is the headline of the article. 74% of sales in the wind energy industry is for export, up from 58% in 2003.
Saturday, November 17, 2007
When will we have Solar Energy?
Creating electricity directly from sunshine has always been the most attractive dream of a renewable energy. Where are we now? It is still a fringe energy source, but we are also at the beginning of a great boom, which is driven by technological advances along with a favorable regulatory environment, especially in Germany. Note that there are many definitions of solar energy, for instance wind energy is only possible because the sun heats the atmosphere causing the circulation of air. We are looking here at photovoltaic, the generation of electricity directly by converting the energy in sun rays.
According to a recent article in the Financial Times Deutschland, solar energy costs in Germany 40 euro-cents per KWh to produce, while the cost of traditional electricity is half as much. However, due to the more intense and more reliable sunshine, in California solar energy the costs are only 25 cents per KWh, which is almost competitive with end user prices.
The article reports of the current solar boom, with the consequences that currently the prices for solar energy installations is artificially high due to the high demand and limited production capacities. At the sam time, the solar energy industry is planning massive expansions, which may even be too optimistic and lead to a oversupply (and hence very low prices) in a few years.
Solarserver puts up this estimate of current and future costs from a study of the "Strategic Research Agenda" (SRA), apparently a project funded by the European Commission.
There are two ways to answer the question When will solar energy be competitive? If you are installing solar energy panels on your roof you are replacing your energy consumption from the grid, which puts you in competition with end user prices. According to the projection, the break even point for solar energy according to this measure is 2015 in southern Europe (at 15c/KWh). If you are building a large solar energy power station, you also have to deal with transmission costs etc., so the ultimate price will be higher. The projection sees the break even point for solar energy at wholesale prices in 2030 in southern Europe (at 6c/KWh).
There are many unknowns here: The cost of installing a solar energy power station is very different from a coal fired power station. Almost all the costs are upfront, while there is no fuel cost. Also, we do not know how the price for traditional energy prices develops - coal may be fairly stable, but there is reason to believe that natural gas prices will go up in the medium term.
Where are we now with actual installations? Half of all solar energy systems are installed in Germany, which is a bit of an odd choice. Germany is in a relative northern climate (even the southern German city of Munich is at the same lattitude as the US-Canadian border). Installed capacity in Germany has doubled in 2006 and delivered 0.3% of all electricity.
According to a recent article in the Financial Times Deutschland, solar energy costs in Germany 40 euro-cents per KWh to produce, while the cost of traditional electricity is half as much. However, due to the more intense and more reliable sunshine, in California solar energy the costs are only 25 cents per KWh, which is almost competitive with end user prices.
The article reports of the current solar boom, with the consequences that currently the prices for solar energy installations is artificially high due to the high demand and limited production capacities. At the sam time, the solar energy industry is planning massive expansions, which may even be too optimistic and lead to a oversupply (and hence very low prices) in a few years.
Solarserver puts up this estimate of current and future costs from a study of the "Strategic Research Agenda" (SRA), apparently a project funded by the European Commission.
| 1980 | Heute | 2015 | 2030 | long term potential | |
| Average installation cost (2006 €/Wp) | >30 | 5 | 2.5 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Average production cost in southern Europe (2006 €/kWh) | >2 | 0.30 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| Energy return of investment in years (southern Europe) | >10 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.25 |
There are two ways to answer the question When will solar energy be competitive? If you are installing solar energy panels on your roof you are replacing your energy consumption from the grid, which puts you in competition with end user prices. According to the projection, the break even point for solar energy according to this measure is 2015 in southern Europe (at 15c/KWh). If you are building a large solar energy power station, you also have to deal with transmission costs etc., so the ultimate price will be higher. The projection sees the break even point for solar energy at wholesale prices in 2030 in southern Europe (at 6c/KWh).
There are many unknowns here: The cost of installing a solar energy power station is very different from a coal fired power station. Almost all the costs are upfront, while there is no fuel cost. Also, we do not know how the price for traditional energy prices develops - coal may be fairly stable, but there is reason to believe that natural gas prices will go up in the medium term.
Where are we now with actual installations? Half of all solar energy systems are installed in Germany, which is a bit of an odd choice. Germany is in a relative northern climate (even the southern German city of Munich is at the same lattitude as the US-Canadian border). Installed capacity in Germany has doubled in 2006 and delivered 0.3% of all electricity.
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